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As of May 2025, Texas’s mortgage industry reflects a complex interplay of high interest rates, shifting home prices, and evolving market dynamics. Here’s an overview of the current landscape:
📉 Mortgage Rates & Affordability
Mortgage rates in Texas remain elevated, with 30-year fixed rates averaging between 6.82% and 6.89% . While these rates have slightly decreased from earlier peaks, they continue to challenge affordability. In cities like San Antonio, the average monthly mortgage payment is 45.8% higher than the average rent, making homeownership less accessible for many residents.
🏘️ Regional Market Trends
Austin: The housing market has cooled, with 80.2% of homes selling below their asking price in February 2025. Home sales declined by 9.1% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, influenced by high mortgage rates and a weakened local job market .Axios+1National Mortgage Professional+1Unlock MLS+1Axios+1
Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW): The region continues to experience growth, with a 27% projected increase in purchase loan originations from 2023 to 2026. However, the number of loans is expected to rise by only 4%, indicating that higher home prices are leading to larger loan amounts rather than more transactions .iEmergent
San Antonio: Home prices have decreased by 3.7% year-over-year, the most significant drop among major U.S. metros. Despite this, the cost of homeownership remains high, with mortgage payments substantially exceeding rental costs .San Antonio Express-News
Houston & Fulshear: Development is robust, exemplified by a planned 620-home project in Fort Bend County. This initiative is part of a larger 3,000-acre master-planned community, reflecting ongoing demand in the region .Houston Chronicle
🏗️ Inventory & Construction
Texas has seen a significant increase in housing inventory, with active listings up nearly 30% year-over-year as of January 2025. New housing starts have also surged, with single-family home starts reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 165,050, up 10.9% from the previous year . This expansion is gradually shifting the market toward more balanced conditions, offering buyers greater choice and negotiating power.Texas Real Estate Research Center+1Unlock MLS+1Axios+2Unlock MLS+2AP News+2
🏦 Lending & Refinance Activity
Refinance activity in Texas is on the rise, particularly among minority borrowers, who are projected to account for approximately 30% of the market’s total refinance volume by 2026 . State programs, such as those offering down-payment assistance, are also gaining traction, helping to make homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers and essential workers .iEmergentMarketWatch
⚖️ Policy & Affordability Challenges
Texas faces a housing deficit of approximately 306,000 units, driven by population growth and rising costs . Efforts to address affordability include proposed legislation to curb institutional homebuying, though such measures have encountered resistance . Meanwhile, the state’s relatively flexible zoning and permitting processes continue to support new construction initiatives.Houston ChronicleHouston Chronicle
🔮 Outlook
While mortgage rates are expected to remain in the mid-6% range for the foreseeable future, increased inventory and ongoing construction may provide some relief to buyers. However, affordability challenges persist, particularly for first-time buyers and those in lower income brackets. Market conditions vary across regions, with some areas experiencing price declines and others continuing to see growth.
