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As of March 2025, California’s mortgage industry is experiencing several notable trends:
Mortgage Rates: Recent data indicates that mortgage rates have decreased slightly. As of March 6, 2025, rates have dropped to their lowest levels in four months, hovering around 6.5% to 6.875% for well-qualified borrowers.
This decline has sparked increased activity, with purchase applications up 5% compared to the previous year.
Home Prices and Sales: The California Association of REALTORS® forecasts a 4.6% increase in the state’s median home price, reaching $909,400 in 2025. Existing single-family home sales are projected to rise by 10.5% to 304,400 units, up from 275,400 in 2024.
This growth is attributed to a more favorable interest rate environment encouraging both buyers and sellers to engage in the market.
Homeowner Tenure: Homeowners in California’s major metropolitan areas, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose, are retaining their properties longer than in most other U.S. regions. In San Francisco, the median homeowner tenure has increased to 17 years, up from 13 years a decade ago.
Factors contributing to this trend include property tax regulations like Proposition 13, high home prices, and capital gains taxes, all of which deter homeowners from moving and exacerbate housing shortages.
Insurance Costs: Rising homeowners’ insurance premiums are adding to the financial burden on property owners. Factors such as natural hazards, including wildfires, have led to increased insurance rates, with premiums now up 61% over the past five years. In Los Angeles, securing insurance coverage has become increasingly difficult, affecting rebuilding efforts in high-risk areas.
Market Dynamics: The recent stock market correction, with the S&P 500 index falling into a correction for the first time since 2023, may impact housing demand. Historically, such corrections precede declines in housing demand, particularly affecting high-income buyers whose wealth is tied to equities. However, the current correction has not significantly affected the housing market yet, although prolonged declines could change that.
In summary, while there are positive signs such as the recent dip in mortgage rates and projected growth in home prices and sales, challenges like extended homeowner tenure, rising insurance costs, and potential impacts from stock market fluctuations continue to influence California’s mortgage industry. Prospective buyers and current homeowners should stay informed and consider these factors when making real estate decisions.
